Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 32.749136 38.849682 45.534551 53.372455 62.278005 72.049298 83.547570
2025-01-26 24.343542 32.591519 42.505435 55.160641 70.734943 89.118589 112.288630
2025-02-02 20.406438 29.926786 42.178396 58.795486 80.405749 107.196399 142.513004
2025-02-09 17.077229 27.138483 40.875010 60.484647 87.173054 121.594275 168.611966
2025-02-16 14.432476 24.694044 39.475049 61.554030 92.812075 134.509069 193.189984
2025-02-23 12.070399 22.188801 37.530274 61.440723 96.542632 144.818754 214.594655
2025-03-02 9.931307 19.620988 35.077205 60.179782 98.329145 152.323309 232.319721
2025-03-09 8.418080 17.799218 33.484841 59.933891 101.395000 161.583443 252.708239
2025-03-16 6.628710 15.148885 30.172365 56.578895 99.394631 163.267047 262.221251
2025-03-23 5.951126 14.433803 30.002599 58.222431 105.120024 176.471388 288.846350
2025-03-30 5.005482 13.008377 28.386428 57.243922 106.534486 183.168359 306.051513
2025-04-06 4.678921 12.805453 28.960210 60.050894 114.214915 199.736826 338.628300
2025-04-13 3.591284 10.793062 26.001448 56.594049 111.738520 201.136982 349.488348
2025-04-20 3.193231 10.293981 25.971245 58.530490 118.661179 217.970190 385.264184
2025-04-27 3.005606 10.269799 26.902615 62.347858 129.087555 240.942490 431.610756
2025-05-04 2.676657 9.795117 26.798683 64.119810 135.950790 258.344354 469.751694
2025-05-11 2.346897 9.228733 26.401001 65.241279 141.664023 274.044560 505.714933
2025-05-18 1.989713 8.476458 25.455710 65.122462 145.027535 285.869027 535.754293
2025-05-25 1.626730 7.583864 24.022621 63.800078 145.973153 293.513874 559.105419
2025-06-01 1.371958 6.957918 23.136349 63.542177 148.905201 304.690351 588.702889
2025-06-08 1.034734 5.893118 20.911573 60.022372 145.100475 303.667200 597.492936
2025-06-15 0.931511 5.689050 20.971601 61.746867 151.943326 322.070311 640.225469
2025-06-22 0.760462 5.126708 19.919987 60.720210 153.040147 329.990306 664.991353